The combination of charter school growth and declining birth rates have taken a toll on Aldine ISD’s enrollment, state and federal data show, contributing to the district’s proposal to close seven schools later this year.
Aldine has lost thousands more students to charter schools and draws from a shrinking number of school-age children in the northern Harris County district, where enrollment is down about 10,000 students in the past 10 years. The losses have pinched a budget that’s dependent on enrollment counts for revenue.
Largely due to these losses, Aldine administrators have proposed closing seven low-enrollment schools, which district leaders say could save the district $32.5 million annually. Students attending the seven schools would travel to other nearby campuses if Aldine’s school board supports the plan. Aldine trustees are expected to vote Feb. 25 on whether to approve the closures.
Here’s a breakdown of Aldine ISD trends over the past decade and how they explain the district’s predicament.
A sharp fall in enrollment
Aldine’s enrollment steadily grew through the 2000s and the first half of the 2010s, peaking at about 70,000 students. But over the past decade, enrollment fell to about 57,850 students by 2023-24, equal to a 17 percent loss in the student body.
While Texas school districts are largely funded by enrollment, Aldine hasn’t had to lay off large numbers of employees during this time. The district has trimmed its staff count by not replacing some employees who retire or leave. Federal stimulus money given to school districts during the pandemic also helped Aldine balance its budget.
The district did close three low-enrollment schools in 2024 as part of an “optimization” plan designed to trim costs and offer better programs to students, among other reasons.
More charter school competition
While charter schools have operated in Aldine for decades, they’ve rapidly expanded over the past several years, drawing more students from the district.
State data shows more than 6,400 students living in Aldine’s boundaries attended charter schools in 2023-24, nearly double the number from a decade ago. Aldine’s losses to charters have particularly picked up over the past few years.
About three-quarters of Aldine-area students choosing charter schools enrolled at campuses run by some of the state’s largest charter operators: Harmony Public School, IDEA Public Schools, KIPP Texas Public Schools and YES Prep Public Schools.
Fewer babies, fewer students
While many parts of Houston’s urban core have seen birth rates decline over the past two decades, the plunge has been large across a large swath of Aldine.
State data shows the number of children born to mothers living in Aldine-area zip codes has fallen by 20 to 40 percent in the central part of the district. With fewer children born in the area, Aldine has a smaller number of children it can enroll in the district.
By comparison, most districts surrounding Aldine — including Cy-Fair, Klein and Humble ISDs — have seen a significant increase in the local birth rate.
It’s impossible to calculate the true effect of birth rates on Aldine’s enrollment, in part because families can move out of the area after a child is born.
Other factors at play
Aldine leaders have cited a few other reasons for the district’s enrollment losses, including more families moving to suburban communities and a lack of new housing development in the area.
District leaders expect the enrollment trends will continue for the foreseeable future, and they plan to evaluate the need for more school closures each year.
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