Hurricane Beryl slammed into the Texas coast early Monday, tearing down trees, blocking roads and knocking out power to more than 2 million homes and businesses.
It also unleashed a torrent of misinformation, largely on social media, about what happened before, during and after the storm.
X, formerly known as Twitter, labeled a June 27 AccuWeather forecast of the storm in the Caribbean that would become Beryl misinformation. X does not have a media relations department. According to the Independent, AccuWeather executives attempted to reach out to X about the community note but did not hear back from the company.
Some meteorologists, weather enthusiasts and social media users sensationalized the upcoming storm.
Still others on Tik Tok and other social media questioned whether Beryl was a natural storm, claimed forecasters never predicted the storm would hit Texas, or misidentified tornado and destruction videos from other storms or footage of Beryl damage in the Caribbean as damage that occurred in Texas.
A hurricane can change a lot the week or days before it makes landfall and Beryl was no exception. Despite uncertainty on how long the storm would last or how intense it would become, what is clear is that at least two days before the hurricane came ashore, meteorologists knew the Texas Coast was in line for a hit. There were hurricane warnings along the coast and the cone of uncertainty – the probable path forecasters believe a hurricane will take – marked the Houston area for days before the storm made landfall in Matagorda
So, what exactly happened? Let’s start with a timeline, according to the National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center:
June 28
Beryl first formed in the Atlantic as a tropical depression, stirring up 35 mph winds. Within 24 hours the storm intensified into a hurricane with winds at 175 mph. Within another 24 hours the hurricane ramped up to a Category 4 hurricane.
This was the first time a Category 4 hurricane formed in the month of June.
Hurricanes are categorized according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
Category 1: sustained winds of 74 to 95 mph
Well-constructed frame homes could have suffer damage to roof, shingles, siding and gutters; large tree branches could snap and shallow-rooted trees could topple; extensive damage to power lines, resulting in outages.
Category 2: sustained winds of 96 to 110 mph
Well-built frame homes could suffer major roof and siding damage; shallow rooted trees snap or topple; near-total power loss expected.
Category 3: sustained winds of 111 to 129 mph
Well-built frame homes may incur major damage, including loss of roof decking and gable ends; many trees uprooted or snapped, blocking numerous roads; electricity and water unavailable for several days to weeks.
Category 4: sustained winds of 130 to 156 mph
Well-constructed frame homes suffer severe damage, with loss of most of roof structure and some exterior walls; most trees snapped or uprooted and power poles downed; power outages could last weeks or longer; most of the area could be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
Category 5: sustained winds of 156 or higher mph
High percentage of framed homes destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse; fallen trees and power poles isolate residential areas; power outages last for weeks, possibly months; most of the area uninhabitable for weeks or months.
Source: National Hurricane Center
July 1 and July 2
A Category 4 Beryl slams into Carriacou Island – a tiny piece of land in the south-eastern Caribbean Sea just north of Venezuela – with winds at 150 mph, devastating the island. Most structures were destroyed, roads were impassable, communication went down, and thousands of residents who lost homes were placed in temporary shelters.
Beryl then intensified into a Category 5 hurricane with 165 mph winds while still in the Caribbean. It damaged or destroyed 95 percent of the buildings and cut power in Grenada, St. Vincent and the Grenadines as it rolled north toward Mexico.
This timing is unusual and early for a major hurricane to develop, according to the National Hurricane Center. Typically, hurricanes of this level do not form until early September. Fewer than five hurricanes in 100 years have developed in the Atlantic in the months of June and July.
This is in part because of how hot ocean temperatures have been. The Gulf of Mexico is between 84 and 88 degrees, which is a degree hotter than normal, said John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas’ state climatologist.
“Every seven degrees indicates a doubling in the amount of energy to the storm,” Nielsen-Gammon said. “The hotter the ocean, the more the evaporation which allows for storms to carry more water and produce more rain.”
July 5
The hurricane weakened to a Category 2 when it hit the Yucatan Peninsula, just south of Cancun near Playa Del Carmen. The storm tore down trees, but there were no deaths. It continued to weaken as the storm moved to the Texas Coast, eventually dropping to a tropical storm with 39-74 mph winds.
That was because the storm hit a front of dry air over the Yucatan, said Cameron Self, a meteorologist with the Houston/Galveston office of the National Weather Service.
“Hurricanes do not like dry air, it can really cut off tropical cyclone activity and hurricane activity,” Self said. “The storm started battling that dry air, so meteorologists were a little uncertain of how that would impact it before it hit Houston. It really wasn’t until the storm got close to the coast that it was finally able to rid itself of that dry air.”
Still, Friday, July 5, Self said, Houston was solidly in the cone of uncertainty, a fact displayed publicly on National Hurricane Center advisory maps.
July 7 and July 8
Beryl made landfall on the Texas coast near Matagorda – as NHC forecasters and others predicted – as a Category 1 hurricane and hit the Houston area around 4 a.m. Monday, July 8.
However, the storm was stronger than just a Category 1 because it was rapidly intensifying as it hit land, said Matt Lanza, editor and meteorologist for Space City Weather.
“The damage was more representative of a high end Cat 1 or even a Cat 2, particularly because of how long it lasted as it came inland,” Lanza said. “If Beryl was a Category 3 in the Gulf and it came in weakening to a Category 1, I would argue the damage would be substantially less because it’s already in the decline.”
Additionally, Lanza said that at least two days before landfall, the storm would be expected to cause damage and power outages south of I-10. It was a shock, however, when the storm hung around over Houston for hours and hit north of I-10 so dramatically. Intense wind gusts reached far up the coast, causing substantial damage in places not predicted.
Hot ocean water and favorable winds can create a perfect condition for a long-lasting hurricane, but that intensity can be hard to predict, Self said.
“It’s difficult because hurricanes have a lot of moving parts,” Self said. “The storm was below expectations on Sunday because of the movement of dry air. It’s tricky to forecast and makes these situations quite uncertain because of how complex the storm system is.”
Self also emphasized that people should not focus on the eye as much as they do. The eye did not go over Galveston, but the area still had a lot of damage.
“The impacts can expand and can expand far beyond the center,” he said.
What next?
The Climate Prediction Center has forecast an above-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic with 17 to 25 total named storms – or storms with 35 mph winds and higher. Eight to 13 of those storms are forecast to become hurricanes with winds at 75 mph or higher, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Part of this is due to a switch this year from an El Niño weather pattern to a La Niña.
What are El Niño and La Niña climate patterns?
El Niño: Texas sees colder and wetter conditions in the south, while hurricanes are less frequent. El Nino ended this spring.
La Niña: Starting in the fall, Texas will see dryer and warmer conditions than usual. Hurricanes are more likely to form during La Niña.
“The expectation for this summer is something close to a record-breaking hurricane season for the Atlantic,” Nielsen-Gammon said. “We remain at a higher risk of hurricanes than normal, which still means it’s more likely than not that we’ll get hit by another hurricane, but the odds are higher than we normally would be.”
How the remaining hurricanes will react this year is hard to predict, Nielsen-Gammon said. In 2020, Lake Charles, Louisiana was hit by two hurricanes six weeks apart. And higher temperatures, due to climate change, push hurricanes to reach a great intensity.
“Whichever ocean is the most unusually warm will be the one that gets an uptick in hurricanes in any given year,” Nielsen-Gammon said. “Right now, that’s the Atlantic.”
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